Feb 12
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My site: https://natebjones.com Full Story w/ Prompts: https://natesnewsletter.substack.com/p/january-is-already-obsolete-my-honest?r=1z4sm5&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true ________________________________________ What's really happening with AI agent capabilities after Opus 4.6? The common story is that autonomous coding improves incrementally—but the reality is more complicated when 16 agents just coded for two weeks straight and delivered a working C compiler. In this video, I share the inside scoop on why the jump from 30 minutes to two weeks of autonomous coding is a phase change, not a trend line: • Why the 5x context window matters less than the 76% needle-in-haystack retrieval score • How Rakuten's Opus 4.6 deployment managed 50 engineers and closed issues autonomously • What 500 zero-day vulnerabilities discovered without instructions reveals about reasoning • Where agent teams and hierarchical coordination emerged as structural, not cultural For knowledge workers watching this unfold, the question has changed from whether to adopt AI to what your agent-to-human ratio should be—and what each human needs to be excellent at to make it work. Chapters 00:00 16 Agents Coded a C Compiler in Two Weeks 01:26 30 Minutes to Two Weeks in 12 Months 02:54 Opus 4.6: 5x Context Window Expansion 05:02 The Real Number: Needle-in-Haystack Retrieval 07:03 Holistic Code Awareness Like a Senior Engineer 08:42 Rakuten: AI Managing 50 Developers 13:09 Agent Teams: Hierarchy as Emergent Property 16:01 500 Zero-Day Vulnerabilities Found Autonomously 19:17 The Skeptics and Reddit Reactions 21:27 Non-Engineers Building Software in an Hour 23:32 Vibe Working: Describing Outcomes, Not Process 25:55 Revenue Per Employee at AI-Native Companies 29:29 The Billion-Dollar Solo Founder Prediction 30:24 The Trajectory From Here Subscribe for daily AI strategy and news. For deeper playbooks and analysis: https://natesnewsletter.substack.com/